On July 27 the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate of interest by 75 basis points, inflation is raging at a 40-year high and the U.S. economy just dipped into its second consecutive quarter of negative growth of gross domestic product (“GDP”)—the textbook definition of a recession. It’s not a pretty picture. So how will this affect the real estate market in the greater Charlotte area?
The
reason a hike in the fed funds rate is significant is that most other interest
rates in the economy are driven by the fed funds rate. Of course, that includes mortgage interest
rates. But the good news is that
mortgage interest rates have been at nearly historic lows for years leading
into 2022. The fed funds rate certainly
affects other interest rates, but it does not set them. And the mortgage market’s reaction to the
increased fed funds rate was actually a bit of a surprise. In the case of yesterday’s Fed rate hike, instead
of causing mortgage rates to increase, today’s average for a 30-year fixed rate
mortgage actually decreased 0.32% to 5.22%. Why would that be? The simple explanation is the market was
expecting the Fed to raise the fed funds rate by a full 1.00%. The increase of only 0.75% was actually viewed
positively by the market.
And even more importantly, a rate of even 5.5% on a 30-year fixed rate
mortgage is by no means “prohibitive” for most homebuyers or historically high.
Let’s
take a quick practical look at how mortgage rates affect home affordability. The impact can be significant. A homebuyer who paid $300,000 for a property
in October of 2021 probably got a 30-year fixed rate of about 3.2%. If the buyer financed 97% of the purchase
price, as most do, the monthly payment of principal and interest would have
been $1,266. At 5.25%, the exact same
purchase would carry a monthly principal and interest payment of $1,607. That’s an increase in monthly carrying cost
of $341.00 for the exact same property, on the exact same terms—except the
mortgage interest rate. Will this knock
some buyers out of the market?
Probably. Will it dramatically
decrease the number of buyers who consider the same home affordable? Probably
not.
If
mortgage rates continue to rise, the market is likely to experience some contraction. A 30-year fixed rate of 7.25% would require
the same buyer above to pay monthly principal and interest of $1,985, for
example. That is an increase of $719
over the monthly payment required in October of 2021; and that is more likely
to push a larger number of potential buyers away from the housing market. It really is common sense.
There
have been many periods in U.S. history when mortgage interest rates exceeded
5.25%. Indeed, there have been times
when mortgage interest rates well exceeded 7.25%. The
average since 1971 has been 7.77%. At one point in the early 1980’s, mortgage
rates exceeded an average 18%! So,
putting this in some historical context, it is not pretty or positive, but it
is certainly not yet an indication that the housing market is about to crash—especially
in the Charlotte area.
In
the Charlotte metropolitan area, the inventory of homes available for sale is
still quite low. The Charlotte market
has been characterized over the last two or three years by low inventory and a
high number of buyers. So even if rising
mortgage rates take 10%... or 15% of the buyer pool out of the market, it is
very unlike we will see anything nearing a collapse of the Charlotte real
estate market. It is more likely we will
see a slowing of the market, with historically high purchase prices
moderating. Check with me again, if
rates rise past 7%.
For more information and to search the entire Charlotte area MLS for homes, townhouses, condos, etc.-- FREE - go to www.EricDorerRealEstate.com. #CLThomesforsale, #Charlotteproperty, #Charlotteinvestmentproperty
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